I just finished Rob Hahn’s latest Notorious POD episode with Ryan Tomasello, managing director and equity research analyst at KBW (see his profile here). The episode is required listening for anyone trying to understand what’s really coming next for our industry. You’ll find the full episode embedded below.
Wall Street analysts are calling this a real estate “renaissance.” This is not business as usual. As Tomasello pointed out, there’s no modern industry that’s seen this kind of disruption—not even the taxi/Uber fight compares. We are watching the foundation shift in real time.
Here’s what matters most:
1. Portal Power Struggle: Zillow vs. CoStar (Homes.com)
Zillow is moving to become more “MLS-like,” trying to set its own listing standards and play the role of gatekeeper. For the first time in a while, CoStar (Homes.com) is positioned to be a serious threat, bringing real cash and commercial experience to the fight. The outcome will decide who controls listing access, lead flow, and maybe even the next rulebook for brokers and agents.
2. Rocket + Redfin: The Integration Model to Watch
Rocket Companies is set to acquire Redfin, a move that could flip the industry model on its head. The big difference? Redfin uses W-2 employee agents. Under RESPA, this allows Rocket/Redfin to offer consumer incentives and integrate mortgage services in ways that independent contractor models can’t. This isn’t hypothetical. It’s a real business edge.
The play here is clear: Rocket/Redfin can use agent services as a loss leader, focusing profit on mortgage origination and servicing. If they succeed in driving down the buyer’s monthly payment—through discounts, incentives, or buying down rates—they could attract serious buyers and change the consumer value proposition.
3. Realtor.com: Losing Relevance
One point both Rob and Ryan agreed on: Realtor.com just isn’t part of the conversation at the highest level anymore. Wall Street, and the industry, aren’t betting on them as a major force going forward.
4. Market Outlook: Expect a Slow Grind
The analysts’ take on market conditions is pretty simple. Volumes aren’t expected to bounce back quickly. Home prices should remain stable, but the era of easy growth is over. Everyone is being pushed to focus on real value and efficiency.
If you want to stay in front of these shifts, now’s the time to pay attention. The next year is going to set the tone for everything that follows.
Attribution:
Insights from Notorious POD hosted by Rob Hahn, featuring Ryan Tomasello (KBW profile). Podcast embedded below.