Real Estate From The Trenches

Rocket, Redfin, and the Real Estate “Renaissance”: Wall Street’s Take from the Trenches

May 22, 2025

Zillow vs Costar vs MLS - Wall streets take on the real estate industry

I just finished Rob Hahn’s latest Notorious POD episode with Ryan Tomasello, managing director and equity research analyst at KBW (see his profile here). The episode is required listening for anyone trying to understand what’s really coming next for our industry. You’ll find the full episode embedded below.

Wall Street analysts are calling this a real estate “renaissance.” This is not business as usual. As Tomasello pointed out, there’s no modern industry that’s seen this kind of disruption—not even the taxi/Uber fight compares. We are watching the foundation shift in real time.

Mortgage Leaders See Easing Rules, Rising Optimism Under Trump

May 21, 2025

Trump rolls back regulation on mortgage industry

The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) is signaling a more optimistic tone in the early months of President Trump’s return to the White House. Speaking at a recent secondary mortgage market conference in New York, MBA President Bob Broeksmit outlined what he sees as a positive turn for the mortgage and housing finance industries, crediting early regulatory pullbacks and a more industry-friendly approach out of Washington.

According to reporting from Mortgage News Daily, Broeksmit said the group jumped in right after the election, getting in front of key decision makers and making their case. Since January, the MBA has had steady conversations with the administration, Congress, and housing agencies, pushing for fewer regulatory barriers and more space for the industry to operate.

Fed Report: NAR Settlement Hasn’t Moved Commissions Much Yet

May 16, 2025

Why buyer agent commission haven't dropped

The Fed’s new report takes a deeper look at commissions just as the industry is adjusting to the fallout from the $418 million NAR settlement. That settlement banned listing offers of compensation to buyer’s agents and required written agreements spelling out how buyer agents will be paid. A lot of folks expected this to push commission rates lower fast, or even shake up the business model. But so far, the data says otherwise. Nationally, buyer agent commissions have only dipped slightly over the past couple of decades, from about 3% to 2.7%, and most of that change happened long before the rule shift.

What’s more, the Fed found that policies like buyer agency agreements and rebate bans didn’t do much to move the needle. The bigger driver seems to be local custom and home prices. Areas with higher home values tend to have lower percentage rates, but the traditional split is still common in many places. The big question now is whether buyers, when asked to agree upfront to pay their agent, will start questioning the value more directly. If that happens, we might finally see some real changes to how agents get paid.

U.S. Foreclosures Climb Again: April Sees 14% Annual Jump

May 15, 2025

After declining sharply during the pandemic, foreclosure activity in the U.S. is continuing its slow but steady return to pre-COVID levels. According to ATTOM’s newly released April 2025 U.S. Foreclosure Market Report, foreclosure filings, including default notices, scheduled auctions, and bank repossessions, hit 36,033 nationwide last month. That’s a slight 0.4% uptick from March, but a more notable 13.9% increase from a year ago.

While that number still doesn’t come close to the monthly volumes we saw during the Great Recession, it’s the direction, and persistence, of the trend that’s worth watching. Rob Barber, CEO of ATTOM, summed it up plainly: “April’s foreclosure activity continued its gradual climb, with both starts and completions up annually… the year-over-year increases may suggest that some homeowners are beginning to feel the effects of persistent economic pressures”.

Wire Fraud Is the Real Estate Threat Most Buyers Don’t See Coming

May 14, 2025

Wire Fraud Is Targeting Homebuyers and Sellers – and Most Don’t Even Know It’s Happening

House Tax Bill Could Be a Game-Changer for Real Estate… Here’s Why

May 13, 2025

There’s a massive piece of legislation working its way through Congress right now… fittingly titled The One, Big, Beautiful Bill… and it includes several key provisions that could deliver real value to homeowners, investors, and real estate professionals alike.

Let’s start with taxes… the bill locks in the lower income tax brackets from the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, preventing a tax hike in 2026. It also makes the higher standard deduction permanent… meaning more take-home pay for many households. In 2026, for example, a married couple filing jointly would get a $32,600 deduction under this proposal… double what it would be otherwise.

The Most (and Least) Affordable States for Homebuyers

May 7, 2025

Most and least affordable states for housing

Housing affordability isn’t what it used to be—no surprise there. But according to a new analysis from Realtor.com, some states are still holding their own when it comes to the balance between home prices, income, and new construction. And a few names at the top of the list may surprise you.

South Carolina snagged the top spot as the most affordable state in the country, earning an overall “A” with a relatively low median price ($354,429), reasonable income-to-price ratio, and—here’s the kicker—a negative new construction premium. That means new homes there are actually selling for less than existing ones, which is about as rare as a stress-free appraisal these days.

Agents Are Making More Money—but Losing Faith in NAR, Survey Finds

May 6, 2025

A newly released industry survey puts some hard data behind the shift many agents have been sensing: higher income potential, yes—but also higher dissatisfaction with the profession and its institutions. The survey, conducted by Redfin in partnership with Ipsos, focused on 500 non-Redfin agents who closed at least one deal in 2024. Among its most striking findings: while nearly 30% of agents reported earning over $100,000 last year, only 21.2% would recommend real estate as a career. And over half now say they hold an unfavorable view of the National Association of Realtors (NAR)—up sharply from just 19% the year before.

As the chart below shows, more agents are getting deals done. In 2024, 72.2% closed more than five sales, up from 63% in 2023. Incomes rose in step, with 58% earning over $50,000 compared to 49% the prior year. But performance isn’t the whole picture. The Redfin survey highlights growing pressure from commission negotiations, uncertainty about brokerage support, and sharp disillusionment with NAR following last year’s $418 million settlement. Nearly four in ten agents say those changes have already hurt their business, while over half report more clients are trying to haggle commissions. It all adds up to a real disconnect: the deals are getting done, but confidence in the industry’s leadership is slipping fast.

Compass Sues NWMLS, Claims Monopoly Tactics Blocked Seller Choice

April 29, 2025

Compass vs NWMLS lawsuit - Private Listings

Well, here we go again—another big real estate lawsuit, but this one has a local twist and a broader punch. Compass just sued the Northwest MLS, and unlike some of the class-action commission suits making headlines, this one is very focused on listing control, competition, and, ultimately, the consumer’s right to choose how their home is marketed.

At the heart of Compass’s complaint is the claim that NWMLS, which is owned and governed by traditional brokerage firms, is shutting down competition by refusing to allow office-exclusive listings—something that’s allowed in every other state. Compass argues this isn’t just hurting them; it’s hurting homeowners too, by stripping away an option that many sellers clearly want. In fact, nearly half of Compass sellers nationwide used their pre-marketing strategy—what they call “Private Exclusives”—in Q1 this year, and in Seattle, over a third of Compass clients jumped on the offering within just a week of it being available. Then, NWMLS pulled the plug.

Real Estate’s New Reality: Rules Are Out, Big Players Are In

April 28, 2025

If you’re still operating like the real estate world runs on clear policies and NAR rulebooks, you’re already behind. What’s happening now — with CRMLS refusing to implement a mandatory NAR policy, and Zillow quietly setting its own listing standards — is a clear signal: the old rules-based system is collapsing. We’re moving into a market where size, reach, and direct consumer control will matter more than compliance with association mandates. For agents, brokers, investors, and even homeowners, this means adjusting expectations fast. If you’re relying on the MLS or traditional structures to protect your interests, it’s time to rethink your strategies.

Large players like CRMLS and Zillow aren’t waiting for formal decisions anymore; they are acting independently based on their market power. Smaller MLSs, brokerages, and agents who can’t or won’t adapt risk being pushed aside. Investors and homeowners should pay attention too — as access to listings, transparency, and even who controls information about their properties is changing. Those of us who work “in the trenches” know this shift isn’t theoretical; it’s happening in real time. Power, not rules, is now setting the pace of real estate — and the only way to stay relevant is to move with it, not against it.

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